The future of the Arctic: results of the session 'New Reclamation of the Arctic'
Predicting polar development
9 november 2024The future of Russia is inextricably linked to the development of the Arctic—today, just 1.6% of Russia's population living in the Arctic Circle produces 12% of the country's GDP and generates 25% of its exports. This was stated by Alexander Sergunin, Professor of the Department of Theory and History of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, at the session 'New Reclamation of the Arctic' of the International Science Fiction Symposium 'Inventing the Future.' According to him, Russia has moved from the pessimism of the '90s and optimism of the 2010s to a pragmatic and rational approach to the development of the Arctic, which stipulates the consistent development of the vast polar territories.
The session was attended by government officials, representatives of polar companies and experts who, in the format of an open discussion, tried to form an image of the future and ways to achieve it. The main focus of attention was the infrastructural development of the Russian Polar region and, above all, the North Sea Route (NSR).
Aleksey Chekunkov, head of the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, noted that the development of the Arctic and its economy is impossible without the development of the main transportation artery. Today, it is planned to build 10 icebreakers, 116 new ice-class vessels, 14 seaports and terminals, rescue and railroad infrastructure will be developed. The total volume of investments in Arctic projects until 2035 will amount to RUB 1.8 tn, of which RUB 760 mn will be allocated from the federal budget.
'By implementing the plan for the development of northern routes, we, firstly, connect the East and West of Russia. And secondly, we open a new, shorter transport corridor between Europe and Asia,' the head of the ministry emphasised.
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As Igor Levitin, Adviser to the President, Special Presidential Representative for International Cooperation in Transport, noted, the NSR by itself is not sufficient for the full development of the Arctic economy. The main 'entry points' are Murmansk and Vladivostok, to which it is quite expensive and difficult to bring goods from the Urals and Siberian regions. It is necessary to develop meridional communication routes in the form of railroads and especially inland waterways.
This experience has already been tested by Norilsk Nickel. Nikolay Utkin, First Vice President and Head of Government Relations, stressed that his company will transport 1.6 mn tons of cargo in 2024 just by river-sea route. First, the vessels of the company's subsidiary, JSC Yenisei River Shipping Company, deliver the company's products to the transportation port of Dudinka, from where the company's own ice-class vessels carry the cargo to customers. The transportation company has 622 vessels at its disposal and navigates all year round. The company's immediate plans are to increase cargo turnover along the NSR to 3.8 mn tons per year. The company is also consistently upgrading its railroad facilities, which still exist in isolation from the mainland; in particular, it is replacing rolling stock with more modern models.
Naturally, the development of the NSR is impossible without new ships. Konstantin Golubev, Director General of Almaz Central Design Bureau, emphasised that today designers are faced with the task of building vessels with a high share of import substitution. One example is the recently launched ice-class patrol ship Ivan Papanin, which is currently undergoing sea trials. According to the head of the company, it is necessary to increase cooperation between individual design bureaus to solve the complex tasks of designing the ships of the future. The basis for consolidating the efforts of engineers should be domestic digital platforms that can bring the best minds and practices together.
By the way, the idea of consolidation of efforts is in the air. The head of the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic spoke about the creation of a register of the best solutions for the Arctic regions, which the agency has collected in recent years. It includes 250 of the most effective technologies aimed at creating comfortable living conditions in the Arctic. These are warm bus stops, systems for monitoring permafrost and building stability, mobile medicine, luminous road markings—everything that has been invented in one or another polar region is proposed to be scaled to the entire Arctic zone.
The main task of the state is to make life in the Arctic comfortable and predictable, which will sadden romantics of the harsh nature but will allow the North to develop and develop the country's economy. As Andrey Chibis, Governor of the Murmansk Region, noted, the first results are already visible today. He emphasised that in 2024, more people arrived in the region than left—the last time such dynamics was observed 35 years ago, back under the Soviet Union. Today Murmansk is among the top 5 best cities in the unfavourable climate zone and is the largest polar settlement in the world.
The pace of development of the Russian Arctic also attracts foreign partners. According to Gao Tianming, Professor of the School of Economics and Management at Harbin Engineering University, China is interested in participating in polar projects. Since 2013, a joint Russian-Chinese commission has been working on building ships and machinery for the Arctic, as well as polar ecology. Laxman Kumar Behera, Associate Professor at the Special Centre for National Security Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University, also stated that. Climate change issues are extremely worrisome for India, with almost 50% of its population living on the coastline. Joint participation in scientific work and the development of cooperation in the Arctic seems to foreign colleagues a very promising point of growth.
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